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李天福: 台灣不是中華民國

前民進黨主席蔡英文說,「台灣是中華民國,中華民國是台灣」。

最近,她又表示,她的這個說法應是「台灣共識」的基礎。又說,民進黨也許可以此和中華人民共和國往來打交道。嚴格說來,蔡英文的說法完全不通。因為,中華民國是政府的名稱,它不是一個國家。3500年前在黃河沿岸建立的華人之國,是一永久性的實體,相對的,其間各個朝代和政府只是一時的。

而,「台灣」是地理上用來定義西太平洋第一島鍊中一個島嶼的專用名稱。因此,將一個政府和一個島嶼這二碼不同之事劃上等號是錯誤的。

領土

也許蔡英文的說法只是她簡速地說,中華民國政府目前有效地控制台灣,而這個控制只限於台灣。

狹義地解釋,這種說法多少反映了現實。

不過,聲稱中華民國是台灣,或是台灣是中華民國或許會誤導人們去相信,中華民國享有台灣的主權或台灣是大中國的一部份,因為,中華民國當年是建立於中國加上馬英九總統宣稱中華民國的領土包括台灣和中國。

但事實上,中華民國並沒擁有台灣的主權。

根據1895年的馬關條約,中國(滿清政府)將台灣島和澎湖諸島完整的主權永久割讓給日本。

依1951年的舊金山和約,日本放棄所有有關台灣和澎湖的權利、產權及所有權,但沒有指名誰是台灣主權的受益者。

中華民國可以宣稱擁有金門、馬祖的主權,但它對台灣及澎湖諸島是沒有合法的擁有權。

美國在這議題上的官方立場是:台灣的國際地位仍未定,台灣不是中國的一部份。

全球定位

為了不得罪中國,美國政府並沒有常常明確地宣示上述立場,但有時也會明確地表示。

在2007年3月,聯合國秘書長潘基文在一封正式的信函中表示,根據聯合國大會2758決議案,聯合國認為,無論如何「台灣是中華人民共和國不可分割的一部份」。

在2007年8月,美國送一份正式抗議函給潘基文表示,「如果聯合國秘書處堅持要稱台灣是中國的一部份……美國將不得不以國家立場和這一立場劃清界限。美國的台灣政策是像水晶般的清楚。」

雖然美國和中華民國斷交,但美國採用台灣關係法,去管理美國和台灣人民的關係。

台灣關係法確認保持和增強在台灣所有人民的人權是美國的目標。它明載,任何非和平手段要去決定台灣未來的行為是對西太平洋安全的威脅,也是美國嚴重的關切。

它進一步表示,維持美國足夠能力以抵抗任何訴諸武力或任何形式的威脅足以危及台灣人民的安全或社會或經濟制度是美國的政策。

美國對台灣的立場:台灣法理地位仍待確定,而且台灣不是中國的一部份,正是台灣關係法的基石。

如果大多數在台灣的人民決定,中華民國享有台灣主權,同時/或是台灣是中國的一部份(中華民國或中華人民共和國),那台灣關係法就被廢除了,因為美國不可干涉他國的內政。

台灣關係法一旦消失,民主的台灣被獨裁的中華人民共和國併吞是無可避免的。

由此可知,「台灣是中華民國,中華民國是台灣」這個念頭具有很深遠的後果影響。

美國立場

果真如此,這意味著持上述念頭觀念的人是願意放棄台灣得來不易的自由,去接受中國共產黨專制的統治,更願在未來人民解放軍和美國及其盟邦衝突時,站在第一線為中國而戰。

就像在第二次世界大戰中,台灣人民將會遭受美國和它的盟國軍事的猛烈攻擊,因為毫無疑問的,人民解放軍將會把台灣轉變成它可以向太平洋和印度洋用兵的主要基地。

當馬英九在2006年以台北市長身份訪問美國華盛頓DC的美國企業研究院時,他表示,如果當選總統,他會把和北京談判和平協議列為他優先工作。

當被問到,他是向中國或台灣效忠?馬英九回答:中華民國。

這是不誠實之遁詞,如果他果真對中華民國忠誠,那他怎能拼命要台灣向中華人民共和國投降,因而毀了中華民國,並將台灣2千3百萬人拋入中國共產黨鐵腕的奴役下。

果真如他自己所言,馬英九在2008得到權力之後,他採取的政策是漸進式的(向中共)投降。

威嚇

這種隱藏式的統一是在多方面進行中:透過片面解除台灣的國防武力;刻意弱化台灣經濟,擴大中國移民進入台灣的數量,降低台灣的國際地位,藉資金技術及人材外流去中國而成中華人民共和國的地區,以下監、罰款及私刑、恫嚇台派活躍人士。可以看出,往簽定和平協議邁進是愈來愈明顯。

上海的台灣研究院副院長倪永杰在2013年除夕夜發表一篇論文,他預測今年(2014年)馬英九很可能會和中國國家主席習近平見面。台灣陸委會主委王郁琦表示,2014年在中國召開的APEC領袖會議會是馬、習會很適當的場合。倪永杰進一步說,馬、習之會必定是一歷史性大事,必舉世震憾,改變兩岸關係,改變中國甚至影響全世界。

併吞

2016年的馬英九任期結束前,台灣被中國併吞的可能性越來越大,原因是:

第一,台灣本身弱小,易受中國的壓迫,經過多年過度在中國投資,台灣的經濟滯留不前,而且愈來愈依賴中國的市場,而被中國控制。

台灣的軍隊缺乏準備對付敵人進攻的能力,而且士氣低落。

接受了「中華台北」的名稱,參加世界衛生大會,台灣已在世界地位上降格。

第二,國民黨重回去專制獨裁。在台灣言論和集會自由被蝕化,司法已成為國民黨迫害,政治反對者的工具。

第三,台灣的反對陣營分裂成支持中華民國架構,以期2016年總統選勝取得政權之夢者,‧但這根本是不可能的事。以及有些人希望能用公民不服從運動及大規模抗議等手段去推翻中華民國政府,確保民主的台灣獨立於中國之外。

在這種情形之下,台灣目前缺乏團結一致又有效的力量來阻止台灣漂流向毀滅之結局。

第四,台灣主要的反對黨民進黨,漸漸抄襲國民黨的傾向統一議程。據報載,前海基會會長洪奇昌將提倡設立促進海峽和平發展的委員會,洪奇昌也支持謝長廷的「兩邊兩憲」的提議。

撥雲見日,把一些謎語切開,洪其昌的提議是:現在民進黨應和國民黨在(和中國)簽定和平協議的進行中競爭,而在台灣投降之後,台灣應被以不同形態的「一國兩制」來統治。

民主

因為洪奇昌是民進黨內最有影響力派系,新潮流的重量級大老,他所提議的應被很嚴肅的看待。

最後,在未來二年將是中華人民共和國併吞台灣最好的時機,因為台灣最有力最可能的友邦的元首是歐巴馬總統。在和北京交往中,他是最順從中國的。他也不像他的前任總统們,他從來不稱讚台灣在民主化的成就,而在台灣關係法30週年(2009),他沒有像國會一樣重新確認它的重要性。北京能輕易地假設台灣在和平中被中華人民共和國吸納,歐巴馬總統也會默然認可。

因此,民主台灣的生存越來越危急。

有心確保國家自由者必須很迅速地建立有效反抗簽定和平協議的能力。他們必須出來宣示他們要有一個獨立、自由的台灣,和世界自由國家同在連成一線。他們必須明確的宣告:台灣不是中華民國,台灣不是中國的一部份。

李天福是自由職業評論家,居於美國賓州

(太平洋時報編譯組譯)

原文刊於2014年1月26日 Taipei Times, Taipei, Taiwan

 

Taiwan is not Republic of China

By Li Thian-hok 李天福

Former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said: “Taiwan is the Republic of China, the Republic of China is Taiwan.”

Recently, she said her formulation should be the basis of a “Taiwan consensus” with which the DPP may engage the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Strictly speaking, Tsai’s statement makes no sense. The Republic of China (ROC) is a government, not a state.

The Chinese state, founded 3,500 years ago along the banks of the Yellow River, is a permanent entity, as opposed to various dynasties and governments which are transitory.

Taiwan is a geographical designation describing an island in the middle of the first island chain in the Western Pacific. It is incorrect to equate two disparate things, a government and an island.

TERRITORIES

Perhaps Tsai’s statement is her shorthand way of saying that the ROC government exercises effective control of Taiwan and that its control is limited to Taiwan.

Narrowly interpreted, the statement does reflect reality.

However, to claim that the ROC is Taiwan and vice versa may mislead many people to believe that the ROC government is sovereign over Taiwan, or that Taiwan is part of a greater China.

After all, the ROC was founded in China and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) claims that ROC territory encompasses both Taiwan and China.

The ROC has no sovereignty over Taiwan.

In the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, China conceded to Japan in perpetuity full sovereignty over the islands of Formosa and the Pescadores.

In the 1951 San Francisco peace treaty, Japan renounced all right, title and claim to Formosa and the Pescadores, but no beneficiary of Taiwan’s sovereignty was named.

The ROC government may claim sovereignty over Quemoy [Kinmen] and Matsu.

It has no legitimate claim over Taiwan and the Penghu islands.

The official position of the US is that the international status of Taiwan is undecided and that Taiwan is not part of China.

GLOBAL STATUS

Although the US government does not often enunciate this position for fear of offending Beijing, it has on occasion made its position clear.

In March 2007, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated in an official letter that in accordance with the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, the UN considers “Taiwan for all purposes to be an integral part of the People’s Republic of China [PRC].”

In August 2007, the US sent a demarche to Ban stating: “If the UN Secretariat insists on describing Taiwan as a part of the PRC... the United States will be obliged to disassociate itself on a national basis from such a position. It is crystal clear of US policy on Taiwan.”

Although the US has severed diplomatic relations with the ROC, it adopted the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) on April 10, 1979, to regulate relations between the US and the people of Taiwan.

The TRA affirmed the preservation and the enhancement of the human rights of all the people on Taiwan as US objectives.

It states that any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means is a threat to the security of the Western Pacific and of grave concern to the US.

Further, it states that it is US policy “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”

The US position that Taiwan’s legal status is yet to be determined and that Taiwan is not part of China is the very foundation of the Taiwan Relations Act.

If a majority of the people on Taiwan decide that the ROC does have sovereignty over Taiwan and/or that Taiwan is part of China (either the ROC or PRC), then the TRA will be abrogated, since the US cannot intervene in the domestic affairs of foreign nations.

With the demise of the TRA, annexation of democratic Taiwan by the authoritarian PRC will inevitably follow.

So the notion that “Taiwan is the Republic of China, the Republic of China is Taiwan” can have far-reaching implications.

US POSITION

It can mean that those who abide by the concept are willing to abandon Taiwan’s hard won freedom and accept the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) repressive rule, and are willing to fight on the front line of a future conflict between the People’s Liberation Army and the US and allied democratic nations.

Just as in World War II, the people on Taiwan will then be exposed to massive attack by US and allied forces since the PRC will undoubtedly turn Taiwan into a major military base from which the PLA can project its power into the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

On March 22, 2006, Ma, the then-mayor of Taipei, promised in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that if elected president of ROC, he would make the negotiation of a peace accord with Beijing his priority.

He was then asked whether he owed allegiance to China or Taiwan. His answer: the Republic of China.

This is disingenuous. If he is genuinely loyal to the ROC, how can he strive to surrender Taiwan to the PRC thereby destroying the ROC and thrusting the 23 million Taiwanese into servitude under the CCP’s iron grip?

True to his words, Ma has adopted a policy of incremental capitulation since his ascension to power in 2008.

INTIMIDATION

This unification by stealth is done in many ways: through unilateral dismantling of Taiwan’s national defense; the deliberate weakening of Taiwan’s economy via an outflow to China of capital, technology and skilled manpower; expanding infusion of Chinese immigrants into Taiwan; degrading of Taiwan’s status into a region of the PRC and intimidation of pro-Taiwan activists with threat of imprisonment, fines and bodily harm.

The movement toward a peace accord is increasingly evident.

In a New Year’s Eve article, Institute of Taiwan Studies in Shanghai deputy director Ni Yongjie (倪永杰) predicted that Ma would likely meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) this year. Mainland Affairs Council Minister Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) said this year’s APEC leaders’ meeting in China would be an “appropriate occasion” for such a meeting. Ni added that the meeting would be a “historic event that shakes the world, that changes cross-strait relations, that changes China and even influences the entire world.” (“Cross-strait summit likely, expert say,” Jan. 2, page 3).

ANNEXATION

The likelihood of Taiwan’s annexation by China by the end of Ma’s presidential term in early 2016 is increasing for several reasons.

First, Taiwan is weak and susceptible to Beijing’s pressure. After years of excessive investment in China, the island’s economy is stagnant and increasingly dependent on the Chinese market and Beijing’s control.

Taiwan’s military lacks readiness and the morale is low.

By accepting the designation of “Chinese Taipei” to join the World Health Assembly, Taiwan has degraded its international standing.

Second, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is reverting to its autocratic roots.

The freedoms of speech and assembly have been eroded. The judiciary is now KMT’s political tool to harass and destroy any political opposition.

Third, the opposition is split between those who support the ROC framework and dream of electoral victory to seize power in the 2016 presidential election — a virtually impossible task — and those who want to preserve a democratic Taiwan independent of China through overthrow of the ROC government, through civil disobedience, mass protest and other means.

Thus, there is no cohesive, effective force to stem the drift toward ruin.

Fourth, the main opposition party, the DPP, is increasingly copying the KMT’s pro-unification agenda. Former Straits Exchange Foundation president Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌) will reportedly advocate for the establishment of a committee to promote peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait.

Hong will also endorse former premier Frank Hsieh’s (謝長廷) “two sides, two constitutions” proposal (“Heated debate expected at DPP meeting,” Jan. 8, page 3).

Cutting through the fog of coded phrasing, the proposal is that the DPP should now compete with the KMT to advance the signing of a peace accord and that after Taiwan’s surrender, the nation should be governed by a variant of the “one country, two systems” model.

DEMOCRACY

Since Hong is a heavyweight leader of DPP’s most influential faction, the New Tide, his initiative must be taken seriously.

Finally, the next two years will be the most opportune time for the PRC to achieve the annexation of Taiwan because Taiwan’s potential ally the US is headed by President Barack Obama, who is most deferential in engaging with Beijing and who, unlike previous US presidents, has not praised Taiwan for its democratic achievement, and unlike the US Congress, has failed to reaffirm the Taiwan Relations Act on its 30th anniversary.

Beijing can easily assume that Obama will acquiesce in a peaceful absorption of Taiwan by the PRC.

The survival of democratic Taiwan is increasingly precarious.

Those who want to keep the nation’s freedom must quickly develop the capacity to effectively resist the signing of a peace accord. They must loudly demonstrate they want an independent and free Taiwan, aligned with all democratic nations of the world. They must clearly declare: Taiwan is not the Republic of China, Taiwan is not part of China.

Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania in the US.

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